Mengenal Perhitungan Bollinger Bands

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Bollinger Bands

 

Bollinger Bands adalah salah satu indikator forex dalam analisis teknis (analisis untuk membaca pergerakan pasar melalui grafik) yang ditemukan oleh John Bollinger pada awal 1980. Grafik Bolinger ini merupakan pengembangan dari konsep pita perdagangan pada jaman dulu yang dapat digunakan untuk mengukur batas ketinggian ataupun batas kerendahan dari harga saham secara relatif terhadap harga sebelumnya.

Grafik Bollinger terdiri dari :

  • Garis tengah yang merupakan Simple Moving Average dengan periode N.
  • Garis atas pada K kali Periode N standar deviasi di atas garis menengah
  • Garis bawah pada K kali Periode N standar deviasi dibawah garis menengah

(dimana lazimnya nilai yang dipakai untuk N adalah 20 dan nilai K adalah 2)

Secara kasar, Bollinger Bands standard bisa disebut juga sebagai Simple Moving Average (SMA) periode 20 yang ditambahin garis standard deviation +2 diatasnya dan garis standard deviation -2 dibawahnya.

Tujuan diciptakannya Bollinger Bands adalah untuk memberikan definisi relatif terhadap tinggi dan rendah-nya suatu harga. Konsep sederhananya ialah, harga tinggi berada di band/garis atas dan harga rendah pada band/garis yang bawah. Definisi ini dapat membantu dalam pengenalan pola yang ketat dan berguna dalam membandingkan pergerakan harga dengan reaksi pada indikator untuk sampai pada keputusan perdagangan sistematis yang akan diambil oleh trader.

Cara mengaktifkan Bollinger Bands di MT4:

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Penggunaan Bollinger Bands bervariasi di kalangan trader. Beberapa trader Open Posisi BUY ketika harga menyentuh garis bawah Bollinger Band dan Close Posisi/Likuidasi ketika harga menyentuh garis tengah Bollinger Band. Trader lainnya membeli ketika harga bermain di atas garis Bollinger Band atas atau menjual ketika harga turun di bawah garis Bollinger Band bawah. Selain itu, penggunaan Bollinger Bands biasanya cenderung tergantung pada faktor volatilitas juga, kebanyakan trader sering Open Posisi SELL ketika Bollinger Bands membuka alias garis atas-bawahnya saling berjauhan. Dan Open Posisi BUY ketika Bollinger Bands menguncup atau garisnya saling mendekat, dalam kedua kasus itu, trader mengharapkan volatilitas untuk kembali menuju level volatilitas historis rata-rata untuk pair tersebut.

Ketika Bollinger Bands (BB) menguncup itu adalah indikasi melemahnya volatilitas. Ketika Bollinger Bands mekar/membuka itu indikasi bahwa volatilitas sedang meningkat. Sedangkan saat Bollinger Bands membentuk garis sejajar diantara ketiga garis Band-nya, itu mengindikasikan harga sedang bergerak trending dengan volatilitas yang wajar (pergerakan wajar), atau bisa juga mengindikasikan pergerakan flat/sideways jika ketiga garis BB itu sejajar sekaligus horizontal.

Trader forex sering cenderung menggunakan Bollinger Bands dengan indikator lainnya untuk mengkonfirmasi pergerakan harga. Secara khusus, penggunaan osilator seperti Bollinger Bands akan sering dibarengi dengan indikator non-osilator  seperti pola chart, fibonacci retracement atau trendline. Jika indikator ini mengkonfirmasi signal rekomendasi dari Bollinger Bands, maka trader akan memiliki keyakinan yang lebih besar bahwa BB yang dia pakai ternyata mampu memprediksi pergerakan harga yang benar dalam kaitannya dengan volatilitas pasar, alias signal yang didapat itu lebih valid.

Jika dinilai dari segi akurasi dan keefektifan signal yang diberikan, maka Bollinger Bands terhitung kurang bagus alias sering meleset terutama jika digunakan sendiri tanpa dikombinasi dengan indikator-indikator lainnya.
Beberapa perusahaan finansial besar seperti Forbes, JP Morgan, dll menyebut Bollinger Bands sebagai salah satu indikator simple dan lumayan efektif tapi wajib disertai Stop-Loss yang ketat dalam pengaplikasiannya untuk trading.

Sebenarnya ada metode lain di kalangan trader forex, khususnya trader Indonesia yang menitikberatkan penggunaan Moving Averages dan Bollinger Bands. Metode ini lebih dikenal dengan teknik KG yang diciptakan oleh trader Indonesia bernama “Kang Gun”. Tapi metode/teknik KG ini akan kita bahas di materi-materi selanjutnya, bukan sekarang.

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